Ending a process long in the making is always difficult. In the past year alone, we've seen "Game of Thrones" and "Star Wars" both struggle to put the final touches on stories eight seasons and nine(-plus) movies in the making. Fair or not, endings matter. They matter even if the journey up until the ending is awesome, having the potential to ruin what came before it (just ask most "Game of Thrones" fans). They also matter even if the journey up until the ending is uneven, having the ability to, in a way, validate the entire process ("Terminator 3" comes to mind).
I'm only bringing this up because it's Week 17 and this is my final chance to rise above .500 with my five weekly best bets. I started the year 1-9 in Weeks 1 and 2 -- pretty much the equivalent to beginning a nine-movie saga with "The Phantom Menace" and "Attack of the Clones." Since then, I've yet to reach .500, even though I've slowly clawed my way back to the point where it's very much within my grasp with one week remaining. After yet another 3-2 week, I'm one game below .500 with five best bets remaining. I've said ever since my rough beginning to the season that I was only hoping to finish .500. I'd consider that a successful season. So, it all comes down to Week 17.
I guess now is the time for me to I admit that I'm probably the only person alive who liked both the series finale of "Game of Thrones" and "The Rise of Skywalker" -- they're both good. Don't @ me. I don't know what that means, but maybe it means my picks will finish above .500 and I'll consider my season a success even though the rest of you will still consider it a failure.
Onto the picks.
Last week: 3-2
This year: 39-40-1
1. Bears at Vikings Under 37
The Vikings are locked as the sixth seed, so they don't have much to play for. The Bears are already out of the playoff conversation. They also have nothing to play for. It's a difficult game to assess, but regardless, I like the under.
Both of these defenses are good, with the Bears ranking ninth in DVOA and the Vikings placing seventh. If the Vikings decide to sit some of their offensive starters, they should struggle to move the ball on the Bears. Even if they play their starters, they should struggle to score points. We just watched the Packers' then-17th ranked defense by DVOA maul the Vikings up front, making life difficult for Kirk Cousins. The Bears should be able to do the same. Since Cousins arrived in Minnesota, the Vikings have scored 36 points across three games -- or 12 points per game -- against the Bears.
The Bears, on the other hand, are a woeful offensive team. You know this. I know this. We all know this. It doesn't matter who does or doesn't play for them. They're going to struggle to score points as long as their quarterback is the consistently inconsistent Mitchell Trubisky. Related: 10 of the Bears' 15 games have gone under.
I'll take the under one more time.
2. Falcons at Buccaneers Over 47.5
Jameis Winston is a human over machine. Eleven of the Buccaneers' games have gone over this season, mainly because Winston throws the ball downfield with reckless abandon. He leads the league in passing yards (4,908) and interceptions (28), and he's second to only Lamar Jackson in touchdown passes (31). That means, of course, he's on pace to become the first quarterback in NFL history to finish a season with 30-plus touchdowns and 30-plus interceptions. And, oh yeah, he's 569 yards away from tying Peyton Manning's single-season passing yards record. And if he were to do that, he'd also break Norm Van Brocklin's record for passing yards in a game (554), a record that has stood since 1951.
Winston should be able to do damage against a Falcons defense that has improved in recent weeks, but still ranks 23rd in DVOA. He should also help out the Falcons by giving them the ball.
In the season finale, I'll trust Winston to be his normal gunslinger self. I'll take the over one final time.
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3. Saints -13 at Panthers
Week 17 is a difficult week to gauge because there's just no way to know if the teams who have nothing to play for will show up.
The good news here is that we know the Saints have everything to play for as they attempt to secure home-field advantage and a first-round bye for the playoffs. We also know the Panthers have nothing to play for and they'll be starting rookie Will Grier, who did his best Kyle Allen impression in his debut with three interceptions. This is just a colossal mismatch between a superior team with everything to play for and a terrible team with nothing to play for. The Panthers are 0-3 since they fired Ron Rivera and they've lost those three games by an average margin of 19.3 points. Meanwhile, the Saints are 10-5 against the spread this season.
Give me the better team with something play for over the bad team with nothing to play for.
4. Chiefs -8.5 vs. Chargers
Similarly, the Chiefs do have something to play for: a chance at a first-round bye if the Patriots slip up against the Dolphins. Andy Reid has already said the Chiefs will play their starters, so we should see plenty of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. Even if the Chiefs see the Patriots beating the Dolphins and decide to sit Mahomes, this is a team that scored 50 total points against the Packers and Vikings with Matt Moore at quarterback. As long as Reid is orchestrating the attack, the Chiefs should be able to get theirs against a Chargers defense that ranks 21st in DVOA. And the Chiefs' defense is peaking. They're up to 10th in DVOA. Since their Week 12 bye, they're allowing 7.8 points per game. Overall, the Chiefs are 10-5 against the spread.
The Chargers ... are not peaking. After their loss to the Raiders, they're now 4-9-2 against the spread. This is another case of taking the better team at home against a bad team with nothing to play for.
5. Titans -3.5 at Texans
I know Bill O'Brien has said he will (foolishly) play his starters even though the Texans' playoff position is likely already secured, which means Deshaun Watson is expected to start, but I still like the Titans to clinch a playoff berth by knocking off the Texans.
Right now, the Titans have the better quarterback. That sounds absurd to say about Ryan Tannehill and Watson, but it's the reality. Very quietly, Watson has struggled since he dismantled the Patriots a few weeks ago. In his past three games, he's completing 60.6 percent of his passes, averaging 6.6 yards per pass, and has thrown two more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (3) for a 70.1 passer rating. Meanwhile, Tannehill is playing like a top-five quarterback and has played like one all season. Even during the Titans' two-game losing streak, he's averaging 8.8 yards per attempt and has thrown five touchdowns and one interception that wasn't his fault. On Sunday, he's going up against a defense that ranks 25th against the pass by DVOA.
Continuing my theme here, I'll take the team with everything to play for. They also happen to have the better quarterback too.
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December 26, 2019 at 04:29AM
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NFL Week 17 odds, picks: Saints smash Panthers, Chiefs keep rolling with huge win over Chargers - CBS Sports
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