Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs. We’ve got loads to get into on this Monday Night slate between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, with thoughts on Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and more!
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Watch NFL Monday Night Showdown Picks at 7:30 p.m. EST as Your Ol’ Pal EMac and Nolan Kelly break down Monday’s game for Showdown formats.
NFL DFS Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers +5.0 / 53.0 (Mexico City, Aztec Stadium)
Last year, the game in Mexico City was moved back to the U.S. after the turf was deemed unsafe. This was the result of a couple concerts and some unusual rain, but everything looks to be safe for this matchup.
The Chargers were practicing at the Air Force Academy this week in Colorado Springs which is at 6,035 feet above sea level. Mexico City is still much higher at 7,382. The Chiefs stayed home in Kansas City which is at 909 feet so it will be interesting to see the effects this may have on stamina.
Also note that there are four teams on a bye (GB, NYG, SEA, TEN) when I am referencing players’ weekly rankings.
Kansas City Chiefs 29.0 implied points
Quarterback
Being out of action for two weeks did not allow any time for rust to collect on Patrick Mahomes. In his return to action against Tennessee, he was 36 for 50 with 446 yards and three touchdowns. The knee injury will probably curtail his rushing upside, but he can still move around in the pocket at least. The Chargers have the 21st passing DVOA and 13th adjusted sack rate, so this is a good matchup for Mahomes, but really, what matchup isn’t?
Running Back
Last week, LeSean McCoy was a healthy inactive and the week prior he saw only six snaps. Darrel Williams had 17 and 11 in those two games, but just three total carries for seven yards and two targets for one nine-yard catch. Darwin Thompson had five and no snaps and Anthony Sherman had four and two.
The big winner was Damien Williams who had 60 snaps (73%) last week and 43 (72%) the week before. He tallied a combined 31/202/1 rushing and saw seven targets for 7/35/0 through the air. Our only concern for NFL DFS is that he is listed as questionable for tonight for a personal matter, though he did travel with the team.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill, Demarcus Robinson and Sammy Watkins continue to dominate the snap share, though it is Robinson who is the odd man out when it comes to targets. Over the last three weeks, it has been 36 for Hill, 27 for Watkins and just nine for Robinson. The tight ends are averaging nine targets per game and the running backs just over five in that stretch.
| Player | Games | Snaps | Snap % | Routes | Trgts | Recpts | Rec Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce TE | 10 | 610 | 92 | 351 | 81 | 56 | 741 | 3 |
| Tyreek Hill WR | 6 | 276 | 42 | 178 | 54 | 33 | 543 | 5 |
| Sammy Watkins WR | 8 | 439 | 66 | 275 | 65 | 40 | 512 | 3 |
| Mecole Hardman WR | 10 | 334 | 50 | 212 | 33 | 21 | 437 | 5 |
| Demarcus Robinson WR | 10 | 512 | 77 | 322 | 45 | 27 | 379 | 3 |
| Darrel Williams RB | 10 | 131 | 20 | 86 | 14 | 12 | 156 | 0 |
| Damien Williams RB | 8 | 269 | 40 | 151 | 26 | 22 | 150 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle WR | 10 | 112 | 17 | 70 | 14 | 10 | 147 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy RB | 9 | 207 | 31 | 102 | 22 | 20 | 129 | 1 |
| Deon Yelder TE | 8 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Anthony Sherman FB | 10 | 53 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Blake Bell TE | 10 | 274 | 41 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson RB | 7 | 21 | 3 | 97 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Total | 10 | 665 Team | 369 | 251 | 3279 | 22 |
Tight End
Even though this has been a disappointing season for Travis Kelce, he is still in the top 15 for targets at 8.1 per game and he is averaging 74.1 receiving yards per game. The three touchdowns is where the fantasy decline comes in, but we know that touchdowns are fickle and hard to project or count on. Blake Bell and Deon Yelder have combined for 10 targets with 6/60/0 so they are not options, even on the single-game slate.
Defense/Special Teams
The Chargers have 10 interceptions and six fumbles lost on the season, which is 10th in the league. Kansas City has six interceptions and six fumble recoveries, which is in the bottom 10. Philip Rivers has been sacked 18 times which is the sixth lowest and Kansas City has been formidable with 30 sacks. This unit is in play on Monday night.
Los Angeles Chargers 24.0 implied points
Quarterback
Philip Rivers is sixth overall this season with 281.6 passing yards per game. However, his 14 touchdowns are just in the middle of the pack. Kansas City is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers over their last four games, but they have the fifth-best passing DVOA. How is that possible, you ask? Well, the opposition is making up the difference on volume when they are in catch-up mode.
For the full week, Rivers is a fringe QB10 and he has a plethora of receiving options at his disposal. Clearly it is not a direct comparison, but last year, he did put up 737 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions in two meetings with Andy Reid’s squad.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon is getting it done on the ground with four touchdowns in his last three games and going 42/188/3 in his last two. He is averaging just over three targets per game, but has turned 21 into just 15/91/1 on the year. Austin Ekeler is ceding snaps to Gordon and not making them up with most of the receiving corps now healthy. This is still a solid spot for him as Kansas City has been horrible against the run and if Rivers and the gang are playing catch-up, it will likely be with Ekeler on the field more than Gordon. Keep in mind that Ekeler has seen only nine targets over his last three games.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen is the clear top NFL DFS option with the best connection with Philip Rivers with 42 targets over the last five games. Hunter Henry has 40 in the same time frame after returning from his injury.
Mike Williams is a distant third with 19, though everyone else combined among the wideouts and tight ends has 15 total targets.
Andre Patton saw four targets last week, his first since Week 4 but he has been on the field for 62, 58 and 37 snaps over the most recent three-game stretch. He has just two catches for 22 yards, but is incredibly cheap on DraftKings with his $200 price tag.
| Player | Games | Snaps | Snap % | Routes | Trgts | Recpts | Rec Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen WR | 10 | 585 | 87 | 369 | 95 | 62 | 725 | 3 |
| Mike Williams WR | 9 | 512 | 77 | 318 | 56 | 31 | 585 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler RB | 10 | 389 | 58 | 223 | 62 | 57 | 559 | 6 |
| Hunter Henry TE | 6 | 313 | 47 | 188 | 45 | 33 | 418 | 3 |
| Dontrelle Inman WR | 4 | 139 | 21 | 87 | 13 | 8 | 132 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon RB | 6 | 221 | 33 | 104 | 21 | 15 | 91 | 1 |
| Virgil Green TE | 9 | 261 | 39 | 106 | 8 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks TE | 7 | 80 | 12 | 49 | 7 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Jason Moore WR | 5 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Geremy Davis WR | 7 | 83 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Derek Watt FB | 10 | 82 | 12 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin WR | 5 | 192 | 29 | 135 | 16 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Andre Patton WR | 7 | 217 | 32 | 111 | 8 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson RB | 4 | 67 | 10 | 33 | 9 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope RB | 8 | 28 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Sean Culkin TE | 4 | 100 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Total | 10 | 669 Team | 365 | 241 | 2823 | 14 |
Tight End
Hunter Henry was mentioned above, but I will add that for the season, the other tight ends have 17 targets for 10/114/0 or about 1.7 receptions for 11.4 yards each week.
Defense/Special Teams
In his return, Patrick Mahomes was sacked just twice, though his backup Matt Moore went down nine times during his two starts. Mahomes will probably give up a couple sacks, but has thrown only one interception all season.
MNF NFL DFS Strategy
The core build on both DraftKings and FanDuel is going to be centered around Patrick Mahomes, Hunter Henry and one of the Chargers running backs for me. Keep in mind that altitude affects everyone differently.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
NOTABLE INACTIVES: Kansas City Darwin Thompson, Blake Bell – Los Angeles Justin Jackson, Geremy Davis
NFL DFS Top 10
- Patrick Mahomes: we are paying a premium, but he projects sooooo well.
- Hunter Henry: if I am playing just one Charger, it is going to be Henry.
- Tyreek Hill: this is not much of a surprise to place him in the top three.
- Damien Williams: if he is active, there is an argument for him to be in the top three, particularly if McCoy is inactive.
- Keenan Allen: always with game breaking potential and he gets volume as well.
- Philip Rivers: the old man can still sling the pigskin.
- Austin Ekeler: gets the slight nod over Gordon on both sites for the discount.
- Melvin Gordon III: he should see heavy work the first two drives and for as long as it is a close game.
- Travis Kelce: the touchdowns should return at some point.
- Sammy Watkins and Mike Williams: truly a coin flip for these opposing WR2s.
NFL DFS Secondary Plays
- Harrison Butker and Michael Badgley: this feels like a game with more touchdowns than field goals.
- Kansas City D/ST: more dynamic returners and should be playing from ahead.
- Demarcus Robinson: on the field a ton, just too many others competing for opportunities. Has not has double digit fantasy points since Week 2.
- Los Angeles D/ST: should be good for a couple of sacks, turnovers will be tricky. Negative four is the most we can lose on DraftKings for scoring allowed.
- Mecole Hardman: returns kicks, may get one or two long targets but no volume.
NFL DFS Lottery Tickets
- Darwin Thompson: needs to catch lightening in a bottle, becomes VERY intriguing if Damien Williams is out.
- Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy: needs a lucky touchdown or an in-game injury for relevance if Damien is active.
- Andre Patton: literally the key that unlocks everything on DraftKings, just be prepared for a zero.
- Virgil Green: a chance for a target… literally one.
- Blake Bell, Lance Kendricks: backup tight ends.
- Troymaine Pope: may get a chance to return kicks if active.
- Derek Watt: time to go buy an actual lottery ticket.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
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Good Luck NFL DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
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